THESE are the seven graphs that should make the Rudd Government feel sick.For full article click here
These are the seven graphs that should make you ask: What? Has global warming now stopped?
Look for yourself. They show that the world hasn’t warmed for a decade, and has even cooled for several years.
Sea ice now isn’t melting, but spreading. The seas have not just stopped rising, but started to fall.
Nor is the weather getting wilder. Cyclones, as well as tornadoes and hurricanes, aren’t increasing and the rain in Australia hasn’t stopped falling.
What’s more, the slight warming we saw over the century until 1998 still makes the world no hotter today than it was 1000 years ago.
In fact, it’s even a bit cooler. So, dude, where’s my global warming?
These graphs should in fact be good news for the Government and all the other warming preachers who warned we were doomed by our gases, which were heating the world to hell.
Now Prime Minister Kevin Rudd can at last stop sweating about the warming terrors he told us were coming – the horrific droughts, the dengue fever, the malaria, the devastation to our land and economy.
And he can announce that, hey, emergency over for now. His emissions trading scheme will go into deep freeze while he checks this good news.
As for his promise this week to make your power bills go up $200 a year to stop global warming? His promise to make even food more expensive? To put gassy companies out of business, and their workers out of a job?
Cancel all that. As you were, soldier. Good news has come from the front.
But now you can see why these graphs terrify Rudd, who has never admitted to a single fact they contain.
You think he dares admit he panicked you for no good reason? Wasted countless millions of dollars?
Yet the facts are stark: The world simply isn’t warming as he and his pet scientists said.
That’s why 31,000 other scientists, including world figures such as physicist Prof Freeman Dyson, atmospheric physicist Prof Richard Lindzen and climate scientist Prof Fred Singer, issued a joint letter last month warning governments not to jump on board the global warming bandwagon.
“There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gases is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the earth’s atmosphere and disruption of the earth’s climate.”
That’s why Ivar Glaever, who won a Nobel Prize for Physics, this month declared “I am a sceptic”, because “we don’t really know what the actual effect on the climate is”.
And it’s why the American Physical Society this month said “there is a considerable presence within the scientific community of people who do not agree with the (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) conclusion that anthropogenic CO2 emissions are very probably likely to be primarily responsible for the global warming that has occurred since the Industrial Revolution.”
So let me go through my seven graphs that help to explain why even Nobel Prize winners question what Rudd keeps claiming — that man is warming the world, and dangerously.
The main graph is from the Hadley Centre of Britain’s Meteorological Office and one of the four bodies measuring world temperature.
As you see, since 1998 — an unusually warm year thanks to the “El Nino” pool of warmer water in the Pacific — the world’s temperature dropped back to a steady plateau, followed by a few years of cooling.
The second graph confirms both the halt in warming, and then cooling. It’s from another of those four bodies, the University of Alabama in Huntsville, which monitors the troposphere — from the ground to 12km altitude.
Only one of the four, in fact, claims temperatures are still rising. That’s NASA, whose program is run by Dr James Hanson, Al Gore’s global warming adviser and a controversial catastrophist whose team’s reworking of data has been heavily criticised for exaggerating any heating.
But before I go on, a caveat: This recent cooling doesn’t disprove the theory that man is warming the world.
Ten years is too short to be sure of a trend. Natural factors may for now be countering the effect of our gases.
Then again, the theory that man has warmed the world is based on a rise in temperature over a period that’s not much longer — from just 1975 to 1998.
And the computer climate models that scientists use to predict catastrophic warming a century from now somehow never predicted a cooling that’s happening right now.
And these are the models Rudd is betting on with our jobs and cash.
The third graph shows another surprise those models never predicted: the seas have stopped rising.
The waters have crept up for at least 150 years, since the world started to thaw from the Little Ice Age, and well before any likely man-made warming.
But the climate models predicted that a big rise in emissions from all those cars, power plants and factories since World War II would cause an equally big rise in the seas, swelling them as much as 59cm by 2100.
This wasn’t scary enough for alarmists like Al Gore, though, who claimed whole cities could in fact be drowned under 6m of ocean.
But the satellites that have checked sea levels since 1992 find the seas have instead fallen over the past two years. Again, this could be a blip. But it isn’t what the models predicted.
The fourth graph seems to confirm a cooling. Forget media scares about a melting North Pole; sea ice has grown so fast in the southern hemisphere there is now more ice in the world than is usual, says the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Graph five punctures another scare. No, global warming hasn’t given us more cyclones – or more tornadoes or hurricanes anywhere. Nor is their proof that cyclones are getting worse, says the American Meteorological Society.
And warming hasn’t stopped our rain, either, despite media hype about a “one-in-a-100 year drought”. See the Bureau of Meteorology records in graph six. It’s just bad luck that the fickle rain now tends to fall where it’s not needed most.
And, please, can we drop that old fiction that the world was never warmer? It’s a false claim made popular by a 2001 report of the IPCC, the United Nations’ climate group, which ran a graph, shaped like a hockey stick, claiming there was no warming for millennia until humans last century gassed up their world.
In fact, that “hockey stick” is now discredited, and last year Dr Craig Loehle, of the US National Council for Air and Stream Improvement, argued that using tree rings to work out past temperatures was clearly unreliable.
He instead produced a graph – No. 7 – of past temperatures using all other accepted proxies.
You see his results (which for statistical reasons stop at 1935): they show humans lived through a medieval period that was warmer than even today. This was a period that historical accounts confirm was so warm that Greenland farmers grew crops on
land now under snow, and British ones grew grapes.
But I repeat: the world may yet warm again, and soon, although scientists at Leibnitz Institute and Max Planck Institute last month predicted it won’t for at least another decade. If at all, say solar experts worried by a lack of sun spots.
But even if none of my graphs disproves the theory that man is causing dangerous warming, they should at least make you pause.
They should at least make you open to other theories of climate change, like that of Dr Henrik Svensmark, head of Denmark’s Centre for Sun-Climate Research, who thinks changes in cosmic rays, which affect clouds, may explain much of the recent warming. And now the cooling, too.
But, above all, when that man with the sandwich board comes tugging at your sleeve again, shouting, “Quick, help me save the world – or die”, hang on to your wallet, friend.
Give that urger my seven graphs instead, and ask him how many more years of no warming will it take before he admits it really is too soon to panic.
Discuss this with other readers on Andrew’s blog: blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/
28 June 08
As a youngster in a post war London I was brought up on lamb and anchor butter from New Zealand.
My first dabble into TV commercials was with WOOLMARK NZ, in what became a successful attempt to slow down the ingress of synthetic fibre into the carpet market. I still meet sheep farmers around the world who greet me their thanks and a pint of beer.
I still delight in your butter and lamb which I can buy in my local supermarket, the latter at half the price of the local product sold in our village butchers shop.
What a strange world we live in now bombarded with the rhetoric of food miles let alone tourist miles.
Hence I beg leave to put in this plea for the good husbandry of these two ruminants.
Cows and sheep are Mother Nature’s own brand of internal combustion engines. They get their energy by “burning” cellulose, the same stuff wood is made of.
During their life they produce all sorts of useful things; butter, cheeses, curds, dripping, gelatine, hide, horn, yoghurt, lamb, lard, milk, mutton, tallow, whey and wool.
Each one is a solar powered, self building, repairing and regenerating mobile mini supermarket. The solid waste from which is recycled, returning organic compost to the soil.
At the end of their useful lives any potential waste can be turned into heat and power.
Both of these amazing mammals depend on teeming hordes of ever smaller, internal combustion engines, (mini beasts, yeasts and bacteria) that live within their complex stomachs.
Chewing is not enough to crack open the tough cellulose packaging that wrap the goodies in each and every plant cell.
To release the energy rich fuels, (sugars, proteins and fats) stored within the cellulose boxes that make up the grasses and herbs, they need the power of the digestive enzymes of all their internal helpmates.
Without these, all cud chewing ruminants and non-vegetarian humans could not gainfully graze.
Please note even cows and sheep are not strict herbivores because they can and do digest these tiny animals relegating them to the ranks of the omnivores.
Exhaust from these internal combustion engines both large and small contain carbon dioxide and methane and thereby hangs my tale.
The molecules of carbon that make up their flesh, wool, hide, burps and farts is not fossil carbon.
It was sequestered from their pasture rarely longer than a year and most within a few days before their release back into the atmosphere.
Although somewhat modified by human influence they are part of the 97% of the main cycle of carbon dioxide that makes the living world go round. Not the 3% that the global warmers say are tipping the World, towards an omnivore driven armageddon.
Please note that long before the days of New Zealand lamb the world’s paddy fields, termite mounds and rotting organic matter were producing their fare share of greenhouse gasses including methane.
The IPCC reckon there is an annual production of 600 million tonnes of methane of which 25 million tonnes remain in the atmosphere. An increase of 25 million tonnes would raise the temperature by a mere 0.005 of a degree centigrade.
Not much to worry about, especially if you take into account, the fact that since 1999 the rate of increase of atmospheric methane has slowed down dramatically. Surely these ruminants should be left to safely graze.
Unless they are strict vegetarians, I beg the carbon cops not to tax these exemplary carbon trading internal combustion engines that do such wonderful things by chewing the cud.
The green dream of bio fuels has already turned into a nightmare of starvation across the poor world while devastating local biodiversity.
Since the far off days of good old British mutton and horse drawn milk carts, more and more small farmers have gone to the wall of extinction. With ever larger farms worked by machines not people, soils have lost much of their structure and hence their self-draining and nutrient retaining capacity.
In consequence they need massive applications of fertilizers, pesticides and herbicides all of which guzzle fossil fuels in their production and application.
The good news is that over the past 25 years farmers both great and small have joined forces with the Queen Elizabeth 2 Trust, DOC, conservation groups and other local and national stakeholders. Together they are working wonders of what I like to call the green renaissance.
Together they are dealing with the many feral plants and animals, while putting their patch back into more bio diverse and hence more sustainable working order.
My own small part in this was when I had the privilege to work with TVNZ and Massey University on a book and TV series called “Moa’s Ark” ready for the Treaty of Waitangi Year.
I also made another famous TV advert “Old Mans Beard Must Go” and was there both at the start and completion of the world boggling mouse proof fence around the mountain-tops of Maungatautari.
My case rests, when it comes to the future of New Zealand butter, beef, lamb, leather, mutton and wool please don’t fart in the face of common sense.
If you don’t believe a pommy botanist then log on the truly luscious fat tail from Viv Forbes a farmer in Oz: http://www.damaras.com/newsletters/200805.pdf
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